After a grueling 9-month schedule and 23 Grand Prix's across 5 continents, the 2025 Formula 1 world drivers championship comes down to three drivers, two teams and one night of racing in Abu Dhabi. In one corner there's Lando Norris, the 26-year old British driver for McLaren, looking for his first F1 Championship in his …
After a grueling 9-month schedule and 23 Grand Prix’s across 5 continents, the 2025 Formula 1 world drivers championship comes down to three drivers, two teams and one night of racing in Abu Dhabi. In one corner there’s Lando Norris, the 26-year old British driver for McLaren, looking for his first F1 Championship in his 7th season of competition. Norris currently leads the world championship with 408 points, 7 wins and 17 podium finishes. Right behind Norris in second place is the 4-time defending world champion Max Verstappen, who’s 396 points puts him just 12 back of Norris and a historical 5-peat. This race arguably means the most to Verstappen, as he’s not only gunning for Michael Schumacher’s record 5-straight championships, but also a historical comeback in the drivers standings, as a mere 8-races ago following a 2nd place finish in his home race at Zaandvort, Verstappen was a massive 104 points back of the third remaining contender for the championship, Oscar Piastri. The 24-year old Australian started the F1 Calendar off hot, winning five of the first eight races this season, and shooting out to a commanding lead in the championship. Piastri’s second half to the season has been one to forget however, as he’s only reached the podium in eight of 15 races since winning in Spain back in June. Of these three contenders, Norris has control over his own destiny, whereas Verstappen and Piastri would both need some help from other drivers. So what is the path to victory for each of them? Lets take a closer look:
Lando Norris has one simple target for this race: Finish on the podium and he’s an F1 world champion. As the current leader the world champions, and with tiebreakers over both Verstappen and Piastri, Norris has the crucial advantage of being able to control his own destiny. His historic results at the Yas Marina circuit don’t initially look promising for a podium, with only one to his name (last season’s finale where he led from start to finish in pole), it is important to note that 2024 was the only race where he was behind the wheel of a true championship contending car. Coming first in qualifying will be very important for all three, as the Abu Dhabi grand prix has been won from pole in 11 of 15 instances. Norris just needs a podium to win, but say he doesn’t manage this; he still has some scenarios where a championship comes to him regardless. These include:
-He could finish as low as 7th and as long as Piastri or Verstappen don’t win.
-If he finishes in 8th, 9th or 10th and Verstappen stays off the podium, and Piastri comes no higher than 3rd.
-If Norris doesn’t finish in the points, Verstappen needs to miss the podium and Piastri can’t be higher than 3rd.
Based on all this, Norris’ strategy this weekend should be pretty simple; make it to Q3, qualify at the front of the grid, and just try to stay ahead of whichever driver is in 4th place.
Max Verstappen is undoubtedly the most talented and successful driver of his generation, and on Sunday night (morning in mountain time), he is attempting more historical feats in a career filled with them. Verstappen trailed the top of the drivers standings by as many as 104 points at the end of August, and now he sits on the precipace of two great accomplishments: The most impressive comeback in F1 history (surpassing Vettel in 2012 and Räikkönen in 2007), and a 5th consecutive championship win, which would tie Michael Schumacher’s all time record. Verstappen has a number of ways to clinch the title on Sunday, but as opposed to Lando Norris, he doesn’t control his own fate and would need some friendly results to pass the McLaren ahead of him. However, the higher Verstappen finishes the greater his odd’s improve, so this weekend should be about at motivated as you will ever see Max Verstappen get. Here are the scenarios that would result in a champions for the Dutch driver:
-If Verstappen wins and Norris finishes off the podium. This is Verstappen’s most direct path to victory, and if this happened it wouldn’t matter what Oscar Piastri does.
-If Verstappen finishes 2nd, he needs Norris to finish below 8th and Piastri no higher than 3rd.
-If Verstappen finishes 3rd, he needs Norris below 9th and Piastri below 2nd.
With a little luck and the kind of strong weekend from Red Bull we’ve come to expect as of late, things should be “Simply Lovely” in Abu Dhabi on Sunday night.
In only his 3rd season in F1, Oscar Piastri has made quite the name for himself. The 24-year old Australian phenom came out guns blazing to start the calendar, with wins in 5 of 8 races in March through June, and while he’s slowed down a bit and lost his lead in the standings, Piastri still has an outside shot at the championship if he can return to his earlier form and get some help in the results. A championship win for Piastri would be historic, as he would become the 4th youngest F1 champion (right behind Fernando Alonso), and the first Australian to win the championship since Alan Jones in 1980 with Williams. Piastri only has two winning scenarios, but both are plausible – though not probable – and would require significant help from Verstapppen and Norris. They are:
-If Piastri wins, Norris has to finish 6th or lower, and Verstappens result’s don’t matter.
-If Piastri comes 2nd, he needs Norris out of the points and Verstappen off the podium.
While a championship for Piastri seems unlikely, it would be really cool to see a young, talented driver like him get rewarded for a strong season.
The race goes on Sunday night in Abu Dhabi, which works out to 6:00AM mountain time, and it is streaming on TSN, F1 TV and Sky Sports UK.
